the long way downunder
Well-Known Member
The R2T pretty much has to be the dimensions of the Maverick. Maybe (maybe…) the bed could be a tad shorter, but given the demand for that truck, like the F-150, it is the definition of success in that category segment (up 75% when the market was collapsing in 22Q4.)The small truck (10/10) may be a challenge given the need for a reasonable length bed. I would assume the frunk gets shrunk down and space efficiency improves.
The R2S has to be a Bronco Sport but 7-seater. The compact SUV segment is growing. The Bronco Sport is a suspension kit and body kit on the lackluster Ford Escape – proving that buyers want the "off-road lifestyle" product packaging … exactly the brand image Rivian portrays … if I were making any of the product decisions at Rivian, I'd be bringing the R2 forward to 2023, showing a concept at the next electronics show, have an unveiling within 6 months and be taking orders with a $1000 deposit (to filter out the "why not" people who will put $100 refundable on anything) and build it anywhere, a third party factory, let Magna, Foxconn or similar build it till I could get a factory line running.
I think Rivian is putting its eggs in the EDV basket and I'm not sure it can prevail once Ford, GM, RAM and others from China-based companies, plus Tesla, come along with barebones last mile vans … light commercial fleet vehicle manufacture is a "how much do your batteries cost?" game … bigger operations are going to win.
Rivian is a niche, boutique, lifestyle manf for the foreseeable. If they get more huge orders for 100K EDVs, great, that's what they're counting on winning. But the R2 – if they don't just keep delaying it year over year, which I suspect is their current "quiet quit" – has to be in an expanding segment where buyers are paying a premium for the right product fit. It's usually a guessing game as to what will fit, but when the Maverick and the Bronco Sport have defined success and buyer demand, it's no guess, it's just a matter of bringing a profitable product to market and having the resources to go into mass production.
I'm not sure if Tesla publishes how many 5-seat vs 7-seat, but I assume the product has to offer 7-seat as an option even if most don't take it. There's some phenomenon in buyer behavior that they insist upon the hot rod option, then choose the econo engine, etc.
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