RIVN going to low single digits before it recovers (if it ever does) 😱

[Gr8Barn]

Perspective: Without precision execution this year, cost efficiencies and better demand generation, RIVN will be out of cash next year. They will most certainly need a significant capital raise to deliver on R2 production, continued RAN development and the management of services for existing owners

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[Tahoe Man]

The current Rivian market cap is just under $11B. Was high as $150B shortly after the IPO. The last round of private fundraising had Rivian valued at around $40B, before the IPO.

When all things are projections, people buy into the realm of possibilities. Today, its no longer projections but the ground truth on costs, demands, Capex, opex and so on.

It is extremely hard to start a new auto company, as witnessed throughout the last century. Tesla is an exception and they too almost bankrupted. On top of that, this is RJ's first gig as the CEO. He's been treated Kidd gloves and given a benefit of the doubt - until now. I think he is facing harsh reality for the first time from the investment community, as a public company.

I am stockholder and my horizon is very long. That said, I am also not someone turns a blind eye, just because I like the product. The management is failing and instead of hiring high profile executives, they need to focus on streamlining chains of command, getting efficiencies up, and reexamine their path/strategy.

My guess is that at the next earnings call, they will have even worse pro forma, unless something is changed beforehand that overlooks the bad numbers. At the current burn rate, Rivian has roughly 6 quarters before they are out of money, based on the cash/cash equivalent on had trend for the last 6 quarters. That's well before the R2 being sold to anyone - mid 2025.

Yes, and the stock price is reflecting all of that. Honestly, it's still valued fairly high at $11B. Musk was stating that Rivian must massively cut cost, seems obvious, but how do you do that while charging a premium?

RIVN closed on the lows today. It's been a colossal failure for me in terms of price depreciation, fortunately I only have a fraction of a percent invested with Rivian.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Perspective: Without precision execution this year, cost efficiencies and better demand generation, RIVN will be out of cash next year. They will most certainly need a significant capital raise to deliver on R2 production, continued RAN development and the management of services for existing owners

I'm not sure what they spend on RAN but they should have never gone in that direction or at least gotten rid of it long ago. I'm doubtful that it serves much of a value perspective for their customers and I'm doubtful that owners would have not pulled the purchase trigger if the RAN network wasn't operational.

 

[NineElectrics]

Realize that RJ has a controlling share and Amazon 17%. At $5/share the company is only 5 billion market cap meaning they’d only have to spend 2 billion or so.

If RJ has a controlling share, what’s to gain from going private? He doesn’t have to listen to the board. However, in either case his duty is to the shareholders. Being public at least allows easy access to the secondary offering ATM, and Rivian is going to need a lot of cash.

 

[vandy1981]

EV Merger Ahead? Why GM Should Buy Rivian Today | The Motley Fool

Very interesting and a lot of good points made in that video.

Motley Fool isn't worth the view. Are they still going long on Aeropostale stock?

 

[White Shadow]

Motley Fool isn't worth the view. Are they still going long on Aeropostale stock?

No idea, but they were dead accurate on Rivian, even before the stock sunk like the Titanic.

 

[White Shadow]

Rivian.... will either survive or they will not.

Are you sure about that?

 

[moosehead]

OP, do you happened to work for Dewey, Skrewem, and Howe?

Or perhaps Proba, Keister, and Wince?

 

[DuoRivians]

Perspective: Without precision execution this year, cost efficiencies and better demand generation, RIVN will be out of cash next year. They will most certainly need a significant capital raise to deliver on R2 production, continued RAN development and the management of services for existing owners

You gotta take down the FUD rhetoric down a notch here, especially when it’s based off of Elon’s fake numbers.

These cash numbers are based on the latest Rivian 10Q. See the last highlighted row. Rivian’s cash is better than what Elon says and the slope isn’t that steep.

 

[Gr8Barn]

No idea, but they were dead accurate on Rivian, even before the stock sunk like the Titanic.

Yes, a lot of people were watching this train wreck, but many Rivian owners can’t see beyond their front dashboard .

You gotta take down the FUD rhetoric down a notch here, especially when it’s based off of Elon’s fake numbers.

These cash numbers are based on the latest Rivian 10Q. See the last highlighted row. Rivian’s cash is better than what Elon says and the slope isn’t that steep.

Silly rookie move. Big difference between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Only liquid cash will pay the bills. Not restricted or marketable securities. Good try.

 

[COdogman]

 

[240vPlug]

I feel like I'm running out of breath on this. This is a macroeconomics problem not a Rivian problem. Isn't the US the only major power not in a technical recession right now? People aren't buying big tickets items... A R1 is a luxury vehicle.

Sales of RVs have dropped off a cliff. The signs are everywhere if you ask me.

Rivian is doing exactly what they need to do in this climate. Lean down, cut costs, and prepare for rough seas for at least the next 12-18mo.

 

[emoore]

oh good, another thread by Gr8barn basing Rivian. What else is new.

 

[VSG]

battery pack pricing shenanigan

Shenanigans? Adding a new battery pack was a brilliant move. The IRA cut the legs out from a lot of manufacturers, and Rivian has responded by doing several things, like opening up leasing so that new customers can take the full $7500 tax credit like I got to do when I bought mine outright in 2022 before the change. Also, Rivian has now added a new, lower priced battery pack so that new customers have more options under $80k that will qualify for half the tax credit. Both of these things give customers a way to pay less for a Rivian without decreasing Rivian's per vehicle income. And by giving customers an option that costs them less, Rivian reaches down into the market a bit further to be accessible to more customers. How is this anything but a smart business decision?

 

[R1TS]

You savy investors realize that if RIVN stock went to $5 they could buy all outstanding shares and go private with less than half of their available equity. Even less if you consider shares owned by RJ, Amazon and other investors.

And, what money would they have left to continue operations then?

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