RIVN going to low single digits before it recovers (if it ever does) 😱

[waitingonanr1s]

Yes, a lot of people were watching this train wreck, but many Rivian owners can’t see beyond their front dashboard .

Silly rookie move. Big difference between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Only liquid cash will pay the bills. Not restricted or marketable securities. Good try.

So glad we have a financial know it all on here. Elon's chart is not accurate - doesn't change your point - but you're just spreading false data at this point. They're likely going to have to raise capital again before R2 if the original GA factory plan is what they stick to - that I agree with.

Sponsored

 

[R1TS]

I have mid-teens average cost and won’t sell untill it reaches minimum $80. People who think a company that has 100k véhicules out there, $10bn in cash, another car coming out will go bust are dreaming !

Just a small correction:

Rivian has not gotten to 100k vehicles yet. More like 80-something k.

They don’t have $10B cash on hand. They said they have a little under $8B left. Huge difference here given their situation.

They haven’t even broken ground on the factory that is going to make their next car. It’s a ways to go financially until they do sell their next car. Definitely more dilution and layoffs.

 

[240vPlug]

People want to buy R1, many just can't or don't feel comfortable with the numbers with the current economic backdrop.

Rivian planned on losing money, they say they will be profitable by Q4, realistically they probably won't be until either macroeconomics change or R2 deliveries start.

The way I understand it is that the plan all along for Rivian is to come with the low volume flagship product to build the brand and it's reputation. Then you come with a more mass market product.

Remember Rivian has a better handle on demand then we do. They have first hand knowledge of exactly what's going on. This is why we saw the demand triggers start to get pulled such as leasing, some incentives, and the new battery pack options.

I want to see where we are in June after the shut down. I expect Rivian will be bringing more incentives.

We can't realistically expect Rivian to keep seeing unprecedented demand when every other area of the industry is seeing major slowdowns.

Don't panic, enjoy your R1 (I know we do), and give Rivian some time to implement their plans.

I don't understand all the FUD surrounding Rivian.

 

[DuoRivians]

Yes, a lot of people were watching this train wreck, but many Rivian owners can’t see beyond their front dashboard .

Silly rookie move. Big difference between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Only liquid cash will pay the bills. Not restricted or marketable securities. Good try.

Cash equivalents and short term investments are interest bearing assets that can be sold immediately in a very liquid market and settled t+1 or 2 days. Have you worked in corporate treasury before?

 

[vandy1981]

Perspective: Without precision execution this year, cost efficiencies and better demand generation, RIVN will be out of cash next year. They will most certainly need a significant capital raise to deliver on R2 production, continued RAN development and the management of services for existing owners.

You may be onto something here--I tried to take my R1S for a drive but it wouldn't start because the RIVN stock price was too low.

 

[rbrak29]

Shenanigans? Adding a new battery pack was a brilliant move. The IRA cut the legs out from a lot of manufacturers, and Rivian has responded by doing several things, like opening up leasing so that new customers can take the full $7500 tax credit like I got to do when I bought mine outright in 2022 before the change. Also, Rivian has now added a new, lower priced battery pack so that new customers have more options under $80k that will qualify for half the tax credit. Both of these things give customers a way to pay less for a Rivian without decreasing Rivian's per vehicle income. And by giving customers an option that costs them less, Rivian reaches down into the market a bit further to be accessible to more customers. How is this anything but a smart business decision?

Yes, the leasing and new battery options will help, but is it too little, too late? I have placed my $1000 deposit, but have not configured. All this gives me pause. Will wait for the reaction to the R2 reveal on March 7. Cannot come soon enough for me or Rivian.

 

[rivinv]

People want to buy R1, many just can't or don't feel comfortable with the numbers with the current economic backdrop.

Rivian planned on losing money, they say they will be profitable by Q4, realistically they probably won't be until either macroeconomics change or R2 deliveries start.

The way I understand it is that the plan all along for Rivian is to come with the low volume flagship product to build the brand and it's reputation. Then you come with a more mass market product.

Remember Rivian has a better handle on demand then we do. They have first hand knowledge of exactly what's going on. This is why we saw the demand triggers start to get pulled such as leasing, some incentives, and the new battery pack options.

I want to see where we are in June after the shut down. I expect Rivian will be bringing more incentives.

We can't realistically expect Rivian to keep seeing unprecedented demand when every other area of the industry is seeing major slowdowns.

Don't panic, enjoy your R1 (I know we do), and give Rivian some time to implement their plans.

I don't understand all the FUD surrounding Rivian.

Long term Rivian investor here. RJ in his recent earnings call and the CNBC interview the next morning, really spooked me.

1) Trust is important for investors; and listening to RJ's interviews and podcasts - I always felt he was a straight talking honest guy.
When stock took a dive beginning of 2024 due to 2023-Q4 deliveries, he gave an interview with Cramer, and explained it was due to Amazon not taking deliveries and that he was very confident of R1 orders. He spoke with so much confidence and fast forward to a month later, he starts the earnings call saying that Rivian is having R1 order issues. The confidence he showed in Cramer's interview just a month back, shows no where in his earnings call tone. What has changed in just a month's time? Or was he lying in Cramer's interview?

2) Like you, me and other Rivian-believers/optimists think - the earnings report is not bad considering that 57K production goal and gross profit margin by end of 2024. BUT, had RJ been confident in the earnings call saying that "Look, we want to be gross margin positive by end of 2024, so we target 57K production only due to planned factory shutdowns to achieve this goal", things would have been different. But his tone appeared so low on confidence and kind of scared.

Now, this does not sound right. I find it hard to comprehend what could have gone wrong in a month's time that RJ suddenly appears to be so low in confidence. It appears that something is brewing that really shook him. And that spooks me and i guess other investors too.

If any of Rivian bulls/optimists can address my above concerns, that would definitely give me some relief!

 

[strykerwsu]

Why

Hold onto to your Rivian gear guard as this is going to be a very choppy ride, with more air pockets. The open interest and volume on long dated PUT options out to Dec 2025 and January 2026 are massive bets that this stock will be in the low single digits before it goes back to a solid double digit stock price closer to $17. These charts both tell the story when you overlay their production and deliveres estimated for 2024. Looks like they were already slowing deliveries into Q4. We will see full-on price declines (as opposed to battery pack pricing shenanigan like they announced last month). I personally am a fan of RIVn and want to see the best for the company, but leadership needs to get a better grip on their public communication and guidance. A flat year for production and sales, with fierce competition will cripple their comeback. Good luck to the shareholders. Love my Rivian still, but can’t ignore the critical part the stock plays (see Lucid, Fisker as examples of single digit, struggling EV-only companies).

why didn’t you know this yesterday? Don’t be a prick and keep to yourself until after earnings next time lol.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

Yes, a lot of people were watching this train wreck, but many Rivian owners can’t see beyond their front dashboard .

Silly rookie move. Big difference between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Only liquid cash will pay the bills. Not restricted or marketable securities. Good try.

They bought a Treasury bill with the proceeds from their convertible sale, moron. It's a cash equivalent. You are in no position to call anybody else a rookie when you post a graphic with fake information to make the situation look more dire than it is, and apparently don't understand basic cash management.

 

[Gr8Barn]

Cash equivalents and short term investments are interest bearing assets that can be sold immediately in a very liquid market and settled t+1 or 2 days. Have you worked in corporate treasury before?

Mr. Cash Manager has entered the picture. Glad we have the resident bean counter in this board. Too bad your bank account and liquid cash will not include restricted cash or “cash” that is covered by certain debt covenants. You know that little pesky asterisk that is next to their disclosure actually means something. But since you are talking about cash management, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that their “cash” balance is rapidly declining and I would submit with very good confidence that between now and the end of the year, it will be half of what it is now.

 

[Gr8Barn]

You may be onto something here--I tried to take my R1S for a drive but it wouldn't start because the RIVN stock price was too low.

Imagine when they cut back service and you can’t get an appointment. (See cash crunched Lucid customer service chat boards).

 

[DuoRivians]

Mr. Cash Manager has entered the picture. Glad we have the resident bean counter in this board. Too bad your bank account and liquid cash will not include restricted cash or “cash” that is covered by certain debt covenants. You know that little pesky asterisk that is next to their disclosure actually means something. But since you are talking about cash management, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that their “cash” balance is rapidly declining and I would submit with very good confidence that between now and the end of the year, it will be half of what it is now.

I mean, once your reply is a garbled attempt at an insult, you know you have no leg to stand on.

Edit: [Thank you, admin, for banning him.]

 

[VSG]

Yes, the leasing and new battery options will help, but is it too little, too late?

They are demonstrations that Rivian is taking active steps to counter economic and legislative factors (i.e. factors which are largely out of their control) that could adversely impact their sales. And they are doing it in a way where they get multiple benefits - a leasing business for example can be a major profit center - just look at BMW where an amazing 77% of BMWs are leased. BMW isn't doing that out of desperation, they're doing it because it's profitable and it enables a wider customer base to afford their cars. Likewise the battery options - Rivian needs to continue to be aggressive at developing new battery packs for different purposes. The new Standard pack for example might just be the exact size they need for the R2 - if so they are getting a jump on the R2 as well as reaching a broader audience via a lower price with the R1.

These sorts of moves are exactly what you want to see from management, because it shows they are paying attention and adapting and looking towards the next phase of their business without sacrificing current income.

(BTW what are the Big 3 automakers doing in response to these changing conditions? Crying about how the sky is falling and nobody wants their overpriced substandard EVs and that they "have" to go back to making pollution machines and please the government needs to help protect us from the Chinese and other foreigners. All the while losing market share to Rivian and others.)

I expect to see many more moves from Rivian over the course of this year, because they are not just sitting there hoping for the best, they are actively making big changes to ensure success. And many of these changes are going to happen in other business areas too - the RAN is going to open up, they are going to sell their domestically-produced (=eligible for tax credits) and proven reliable fast chargers to other charging networks, Tesla superchargers are going to be made available to Rivian drivers, changing some peoples minds about the practicality of owning a Rivian, the RCVs are going to start showing up in fleets other than Amazon, and many of the buildings on the Georgia site are going to be built. This in addition to new, less expensive trim lines in the R1 to further open sales, and maybe even signing on for the up-front tax credit to make cash buying easier. We also know that Rivian is working hard on the battery sourcing and manufacturing in order to get the full tax credit (right now it's only half, unless leased), and although this effort is primarily aimed at the R2 it should also positively impact R1 sales when this gets straightened out. Rivian is also involved in legislative changes - lobbying hard and fighting lawsuits in order to be able to sell directly to consumers in those states where it is currently forbidden by law, and to establish service centers in those states which currently forbid Rivian to have service centers.

Building an automobile company is a long term committment that requires a lot of money. So many have failed, especially in recent years, that it's easy to just assume that Rivian will be one of them. But look how far they have come - they have done something that no US company other than Tesla has been able to do. Keep that in mind when you question their ability or their strategy, because Rivian has managed to do the near impossible, so perhaps - just perhaps - they deserve the benefit of the doubt here. I know that my R1T is the best vehicle I have ever owned or driven for my needs, and because of that I intend to buy another Rivian when I need another vehicle.

 

[jwanderson88]

It's hard to get in touch with reality in the current political climate. Right, it's political. I'm speaking from the point of view of someone who doesn't know anything about stock and finance and needs it explained to me. Most people are in the same boat. Unscrupulous people with an agenda see an opportunity to mislead people and they are doing it. There are powerful forces that would like EV's in general to fail. They know that panic and hysteria can lead to financial failure. Forums like this are ground zero for forming public opinion. Anti-EV forces use every tool and are probably infiltrating this forum and sewing seeds of doubt. That sounds paranoid, but it is a sign of the times. In short, I'm ignoring most of the talk, even by well-meaning forum members, and just waiting to see what really happens.

 

[Rivianready]

Somebody’s shorting the stock and trying to sink the stock. There is too much value, investment, and the resulting great product for Rivian to fail.

Sponsored