Will Rivian ever get FSD?

[racekarl]

You hit the nail on the head, but it's more than that, too. Teslas are all newer than the average car on the road and therefore less likely to be involved in accidents (ABS, traction control, stability control, power steering, less rust, less bald tires on average, etc.) Teslas are generally more expensive than the average car on the road and thus less likely to be involved in accidents (socioeconomic status does correlate with accident statistics if you look it up.) There's so many reasons why "autopilot is safer than human drivers" is a bullshit statistic, even if it's technically correct.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Literally every Level 2 ADAS system is "safer than human drivers" in the same way, because they're found on newer vehicles and used mostly on highways where accident statistics are far far lower. Rivian's Driver+ is also "safer than human drivers" lol.

The biggest issue with Tesla's safety claims is that they were only using telematics-reported events as the accident numerator. There are a variety of reasons why a car doesn't phone home after an accident not the least of which is because it can't if it's been too heavily damaged. Conversely a minor accident that was not severe enough to cause an airbag deployment might not get recorded as an accident.

When a more rigorous analysis is conducted using multiple data sources (e.g. police reports) to count accidents, any safety advantage for autopilot/FSD evaporates, and in fact the data seems to point in the opposite direction.

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[sparkles]

The current R1 will never have "FSD" or be fully autonomous due to lack of sensors, and neither will current Teslas. Tesla's reliance on cameras only (especially low-res cameras) is a dead end, they'll never get past "works most of the time" and into "safe enough to have no driver in the seat."

"FSD Supervised" is stupid anyway. What is easier and safer? Driving the car yourself or sitting anxiously behind the wheel while the equivalent of a drunk 12 year old drives the car, and you need to be ready to take over and correct it's mistake before you hit something?

 

[tpberding]

I test drove a Model Y with FSD this morning. (Highly recommend if you haven’t tested it already. It’s insanely good.)

First impressions after getting into a Model Y again after a while driving the R1S: The Model Y feels like a toy compared to the Rivian, the software is clunky and confusing, but the self driving capabilities are amazing.

Will Rivian ever get Full Self Driving?! I realllly hope so.

I'd rather drive than ride.

 

[alacritousOmega]

I'd rather drive than ride.

I want both options, but the interior nagging cabin camera in a Tesla is annoying and feels slightly invasive…

nice that Rivian has no interior cameras

 

[racekarl]

nice that Rivian has no interior cameras

Older Rivians definitely do have interior cameras, though they have since been disabled. Rivian says they are exploring adding them back, so it's not like they have made some sort of ethical stand against them...

https://rivian.com/support/article/why-is-rivian-removing-the-driver-facing-camera-from-production

 

[sacramentoelectric]

The current R1 will never have "FSD" or be fully autonomous due to lack of sensors, and neither will current Teslas. Tesla's reliance on cameras only (especially low-res cameras) is a dead end, they'll never get past "works most of the time" and into "safe enough to have no driver in the seat."

"FSD Supervised" is stupid anyway. What is easier and safer? Driving the car yourself or sitting anxiously behind the wheel while the equivalent of a drunk 12 year old drives the car, and you need to be ready to take over and correct it's mistake before you hit something?

Tesla seems to be the only company working on autonomy who thinks you can get there only using cameras. I'm not qualified to say they'll never get to true level 5 autonomy using their current hardware but it's hard to find an expert in the field not working Tesla who thinks they can. They've made so many promises about how their current hardware is FSD capable, they're stuck going down a path that's, as you say, "a dead end," instead of the path that's most likely to result in level 5 autonomy (redundant Lidar, Radar, and camera sensors.)

You've clearly articulated the problem with their plan. Even if their software gets much better, unless it's so good that you don't need to supervise the system, it's not meaningfully more valuable. Let's say it goes from drunk 12 year old to sober 18 year old (some say it already has.) Great! Is Tesla going to assume liability if the "18 year old" crashes into a police car stopped on the median because the "passenger" behind the wheel was watching their phone? If not, it's just a really good level 2 system that will never generate the kind of revenue that would support Tesla's sky high valuation. It's very difficult to imagine how the incremental improvements to their vision-based system will get them to a place where drivers don't have to monitor the road and be willing to take over when the system fails. I'd gleefully pay five figures for a true level 5 package that would let me nap or watch shows in the car but if I have to be ready to take over and correct potentially fatal mistakes, it's not worth anything more to me than the level 2 assist on my 2018 Tesla or the Driver+ system in my Rivian.

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