Will Rivian ever get FSD?

[SwampNut]

Except again, your information is out-of-date relative to the most recent findings. I understand how these systems work in principle, but in fact they do not (yet) do the things you ascribe to them. The latest NHTSA report describes many instances in the new data set where autopilot/FSD ignored things (other vehicles, pedestrians, etc.) that were visible ~5 seconds pre-crash and would have been easily avoided by an actively driving human.

Those findings are about the old system, not the new intelligent system. Your findings are out of date now.

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[racekarl]

Those findings are about the old system, not the new intelligent system. Your findings are out of date now.

You are incorrect, again. NHTSA announced on Friday April 30 (4 days ago as I write this) that they are investigating the latest recall measures to autopilot/FSD (including subsequent revisions) as being inadequate. This recall involved basically ALL Teslas (including the newest ones) and the latest investigation was spurred, in part, by additional accidents, including a high-profile one involving a 2022 Model S.

There is nothing "intelligent" about any part of the system, and unfortunately the least intelligent part are the drivers who think the car can drive for them. (I am not directing that at you, more of a general observation. Just last night I watched a "driver" in a model X watching streaming on the phone in his lap while his car poorly attempted to navigate a large interchange).

 

[SwampNut]

You are incorrect again, the new-stack FSD was released weeks ago, and NHTSA as usually is doing nothing useful for today's tech.

 

[Rividiculous]

For a long time, I overlooked a major flaw in Tesla’s “evidence” that AP/FSD were safer than humans. The issue is that AP/FSD crash rates are largely based on circumstances where driving is easier (lots of straight highway miles) and is overseen by a human (except when yahoos believe it’s self driving). These crash rates are compared against the rates of humans driving in all sorts of situations including all of the situations that AP/FSD cannot handle.

Then there is the issue of AP/FSD shutting off right before a crash and attributing the crash to the human.

Also, I simply don’t trust Musk. He’s not mentally stable.

I’m not suggesting to systems are worthless or that they will never get there. AI is impressive but also spouts out a lot of nonsense. Maybe the new FSD really will prove to be better. But I’m not keen to be the dead guy they train the data on.

I am interested in the hype. I am watching the hype. But I am not mistaking the hype for truth. It’s hype. Coming from a hype man who wants my money more than he wants anything else in the world.

Also, I already know how to drive.

 

[racekarl]

You are incorrect again, the new-stack FSD was released weeks ago, and NHTSA as usually is doing nothing useful for today's tech.

You can't have it both ways. You claim that historic data (from presumably older systems) supports the claim that autopilot/FSD is safer than human drivers. When that claim is proven false, you pivot to the idea that some "new" stack is indeed safer when there is no data (nor can there be if it's only a few weeks old) to support that claim. You are free to continue to believe what you want, but facts are stubborn things that won't be moved by your claims to the contrary.

 

[Count Orlok]

Will Rivian ever get Full Self Driving?! I realllly hope so.

maybe it is generational but The Count has no desire for FSD. The only usage he can imagine is if he wants to drink heavily and not drive, but then that is what his staff is for.

Is he missing some great aspect of what FSD offers? Just doesn't see any need.

 

[Rividiculous]

Is he missing some great aspect of what FSD offers? Just doesn't see any need.

Why Count, don’t you realize that with full FSD you could simply sit in your vehicle and play video games—like one of those car driving video games—as it shuttles you down the road.

Or you can spend all your time on Twitter, becoming enraged as you travel. What’s not to love?

 

[Count Orlok]

Why Count, don’t you realize that with full FSD you could simply sit in your vehicle and play video games—like one of those car driving video games—as it shuttles you down the road.

Or you can spend all your time on Twitter, becoming enraged as you travel. What’s not to love?

The Count doesn't do either of those things when siting still. IDK, to him driving machines are for driving... especially vehicles like Rivian given how enjoyable it is. Perhaps The Count is weird.

 

[SwampNut]

You can't have it both ways. You claim that historic data (from presumably older systems) supports the claim that autopilot/FSD is safer than human drivers. When that claim is proven false, you pivot to the idea that some "new" stack is indeed safer when there is no data (nor can there be if it's only a few weeks old) to support that claim. You are free to continue to believe what you want, but facts are stubborn things that won't be moved by your claims to the contrary.

I said two things in response to two things. One claim that computers can't make intelligent choices, only programmed choices. False, that's the new stack. The other was in reference to the OLD stack being safer than a human. Argue one or the other but don't conflate them.

The Count doesn't do either of those things when siting still. IDK, to him driving machines are for driving... especially vehicles like Rivian given how enjoyable it is. Perhaps The Count is weird.

I'm probably older than you, so maybe. It would be interesting to get a poll of age and demographics. I do get the sense that young people insist on driving, and I'm just over it. But I also don't care about FSD, just something like Autopilot that works on streets. That was 98% of my driving with the Tesla.

 

[racekarl]

I'm probably older than you, so maybe. It would be interesting to get a poll of age and demographics. I do get the sense that young people insist on driving, and I'm just over it.

That's an interesting observation. At least anecdotally, around where I live the drivers I see heads down on their phones in their Teslas are all Millennial-looking from an age point of view.

On the other hand, in support of your point, is the fact that the "take rate" on drivers licenses has been in decline for years, so younger people that drive are doing so more often out of necessity or desire as opposed to it being an expected right of passage as it was.

 

[SwampNut]

My observations of "kids" in the 18-22 range or so is that they either just want to teleport somewhere, or they are car/motorcycle nerds and want to drive/mod/etc. This is my exposure based on family and friends in my area, I think it likely varies.

My motorcycles are for fun. Cars are just to teleport somewhere. The truck changed that a bit with the stupid performance, and oddly my Tesla's performance didn't do that. But the Rivian is way quicker in every way.

 

[defcon888]

The reason you disagree, on a matter that is not opinion, is that you've based this on a lot of factually incorrect assumptions. Start with looking at how AI/neural net self driving is completely not what is pre-determined by programming. Then realize that the system can make predictive inferences like a human, but from 360 degrees and with multiple non-vision senses. This is why humans will always make more mistakes (or more precisely, often not see the threats).

Guess I am a crotchety old man that is set in his ways so to speak. Like I said, maybe in 5 to 10 years I will feel differently. If others want FSD or a more advanced Diver+......AWESOME.....nothing against them. Just because I don't like seafood doesn't mean others can't enjoy it....same with FSD.

 

[srkz]

Rivian said the R1 platform was capable of hands-free driving as well but it never happened. Maybe they will hit this new goalpost.

I think they had high hopes of rolling their own like Tesla, but when it came down to the wire they realized it wasn't ready and shipped 1st gen R1s with off the shelf Mobileye based setups, which is why they have a million cameras on the vehicle but the R1 can't see any vehicles except what's in the 60 degree cone out front that's visible to the camera in the windshield that actually does all the work.

 

[srkz]

For a long time, I overlooked a major flaw in Tesla’s “evidence” that AP/FSD were safer than humans. The issue is that AP/FSD crash rates are largely based on circumstances where driving is easier (lots of straight highway miles) and is overseen by a human (except when yahoos believe it’s self driving). These crash rates are compared against the rates of humans driving in all sorts of situations including all of the situations that AP/FSD cannot handle.

You hit the nail on the head, but it's more than that, too. Teslas are all newer than the average car on the road and therefore less likely to be involved in accidents (ABS, traction control, stability control, power steering, less rust, less bald tires on average, etc.) Teslas are generally more expensive than the average car on the road and thus less likely to be involved in accidents (socioeconomic status does correlate with accident statistics if you look it up.) There's so many reasons why "autopilot is safer than human drivers" is a bullshit statistic, even if it's technically correct.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Literally every Level 2 ADAS system is "safer than human drivers" in the same way, because they're found on newer vehicles and used mostly on highways where accident statistics are far far lower. Rivian's Driver+ is also "safer than human drivers" lol.

 

[SwampNut]

Rivian's Driver+ is also "safer than human drivers" lol.

It definitely is, and not just because of the other factors.

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