Has Rivian lost the battle AND the war?

[SeaGeo]

Well, the Local site can't support current sales of vehicles if run at full capacity, so they had to do something anyway. Ford and Mercedes sell a ton of vans.

My understanding is that they aren't planning on running commercial vans or R1 series vehicles out of Georgia. That could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything saying otherwise.

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[SeaGeo]

It seems to me they have been on the losing end of this battle and if more and more alternatives start to appear to the R1S and R1T...suddenly Rivian is kinda of a "meh" product.

I don't think that's the case at all. The R1T holds its own against GM's best shot in a.... similar segment with the hummer. The Lightning really hits a different target, though there is overlap. I think the Silverado is probably the more interesting challenge, but it's a hell of a lot bigger, and by then Rivian should have 800v applied for both the dual and quad motor variants.

The R1S is an interesting case study because I don't recall seeing any upcoming releases in what I'd view as the traditional mid range SUV space. The R1S is above that a bit pricewise with being and EV, but the performance is as well. Toyota coming out with a 4Runner and Jeep with a GC variant would present an interesting comparison. Like I mentioned, I think the EV9 is the most immediate threat with people looking to potentially save some money, but I'm also not convinced it will be significantly less than the dual motor variant at this point given the price point of the AWD EV6.

 

[zipzag]

It is about repetitive revenue streams.

Getting the commercial vans going will help them get people into the Fleet system they are developing where the margins are higher and it is a consistent revenue.

They have also designed this to handle entire fleets and not just Rivian vans so the more people they can get in this system the bigger the possibility for growth in the market.

Amazon is certainly not going to be using Rivian's fleet software. What is Rivian's advantage? It's not knowledge of fleet operators needs. It's not economy of scale. It's not being a priority customer for suppliers.

 

[Max]

All really good things to think about. My initial post was more a gut off-the-cuff thought with the Mercedes news of the EQS than a thought-out premediated idea. But as I have had a day to think about it....my main point is probably that the EV SUV & Truck competition is coming fast and furious. Rivian better get their S@&t together and start getting cars in people hands. What makes them unique and valuable now could quickly disappear. Things are moving fast. That can be too their advantage or be a real killer. It seems to me they have been on the losing end of this battle and if more and more alternatives start to appear to the R1S and R1T...suddenly Rivian is kinda of a "meh" product. I'm not decided either way but it doesn't take a whole lot of dreaming and creative scenario building to see a bad outcome. Time will tell. Will be fun to watch. I hope they succeed. I want one and more competition will only help EV adoption and innovation.

I am sure all of this is on RJ's mind as well. It is kind of a chicken and egg problem. Suppliers need to know Rivian is going to make it to bet on them and Rivian needs the supplies to make it. RJ needs some Russian gangsters with plutonium tea to twist a few arms but those guys seem to be busy.

 

[junkanoo]

My understanding is that they aren't planning on running commercial vans or R1 series vehicles out of Georgia. That could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything saying otherwise.

Their CFO did say they expect to make R2 series vehicles in Georgia, but in the talk that I listened to did not (rightfully) discuss what those vehicles are. Unless you know differently, we don't know whether R2 vehicles are just updated models of the R1S, R1T and commercial vans or something truly new and different. Again, since they can't make enough in Normal ... something has to give.

The CFO also mentioned that they plan on making their own motors. It's reasonable to suspect that that would be accomplished in Georgia. Georgia would also host their research and development center.

 

[AxelR]

Quick thought on the first post.
Theres a market for adventure vehicles (even if it’s only to go to the mall).
There have been lots of car manufacturer failing and going out of business. Anyone remember Fisker back when they had that beautiful car? What about Saab and others.
To me the R1S will be most likely eaten alive by EV Range Rovers and Defenders once they come to market and not enough time will have gone by to truly establish Rivian.
The R1T only competes with weird vehicles like the Ridgeline, TRX, etc.
I am an early adopter but if Ford comes out with a Lightning Raptor I’ll drop Rivian in a heartbeat.
The only thing they could really do to keep me is invest massively in their own charging stations network.
Also is anybody else wondering why all the car news outlets are all raving about the Rivian?
Only time will tell.
Side note, I just recently sold my 997.2, it was a great car.

 

[SeaGeo]

Their CFO did say they expect to make R2 series vehicles in Georgia, but in the talk that I listened to did not (rightfully) discuss what those vehicles are. Unless you know differently, we don't know whether R2 vehicles are just updated models of the R1S, R1T and commercial vans or something truly new and different. Again, since they can't make enough in Normal ... something has to give.

The CFO also mentioned that they plan on making their own motors. It's reasonable to suspect that that would be accomplished in Georgia. Georgia would also host their research and development center.

The motors will be in both places. My understanding is they're working on the dual motor manufacturing line in Normal now, which is part of the hold-up to implementing them.

The hints in the past have been moving down market in some way with the next gen Lines. Perhaps a rally type car or more of a crossover. We'll see though. I agree that Claire's discussion saying the "R2" made me think they may have the number be the generation of a line, but that's not clear.

At the end of the day, whether it's called An R1C, R1X, R2whatever, it doesn't really matter. If georgia goes online, they're going to need one or more mass market vehicles.

Based on what I've heard, I disagree that they can't make enough in Normal for the current models. From what I've heard from them, I don't think they're anticipating year over year demand exceeding the total plant capacity once they work through their pre-order list. I don't remember what the exact numbers were off the top of my head, but I remember being surprised that theoretically they could chew through the entire amazon van order in like a year with the van line while also chewing through their entire pre-order backlog in a year at full capacity. Their anticipated capacity in Normal will be 200k, with that skewing to the van line since they're easier to make. So call it a 125k and 75k split? Maybe I'm underestimating the long term demand for the R1T and R1S but selling 75k a year at ~$80k+ AMV would basically be the total Land Rover U.S. sales.

 

[zipzag]

The motors will be in both places. My understanding is they're working on the dual motor manufacturing line in Normal now, which is part of the hold-up to implementing them.

The hints in the past have been moving down market in some way with the next gen Lines. Perhaps a rally type car or more of a crossover. We'll see though. I agree that Claire's discussion saying the "R2" made me think they may have the number be the generation of a line, but that's not clear.

At the end of the day, whether it's called An R1C, R1X, R2whatever, it doesn't really matter. If georgia goes online, they're going to need one or more mass market vehicles.

Based on what I've heard, I disagree that they can't make enough in Normal for the current models. From what I've heard from them, I don't think they're anticipating year over year demand exceeding the total plant capacity once they work through their pre-order list. I don't remember what the exact numbers were off the top of my head, but I remember being surprised that theoretically they could chew through the entire amazon van order in like a year with the van line while also chewing through their entire pre-order backlog in a year at full capacity. Their anticipated capacity in Normal will be 200k, with that skewing to the van line since they're easier to make. So call it a 125k and 75k split? Maybe I'm underestimating the long term demand for the R1T and R1S but selling 75k a year at ~$80k+ AMV would basically be the total Land Rover U.S. sales.

R1 demand is tricky. Tesla doesn't sell that many S and X, and the R1 probably needs to be priced in the range of those vehicles. But buyers on the whole weren't asking for a four door sedan or a three row egg on wheels.

So perhaps Rivian doing 150K R1 per year is a reasonable estimate. The affluent urban families with kids I know don't drive Ford/GM/Chrysler. The R1S is just right IMO. The R1s are also not too big to export.

 

[junkanoo]

The motors will be in both places. My understanding is they're working on the dual motor manufacturing line in Normal now, which is part of the hold-up to implementing them.

The hints in the past have been moving down market in some way with the next gen Lines. Perhaps a rally type car or more of a crossover. We'll see though. I agree that Claire's discussion saying the "R2" made me think they may have the number be the generation of a line, but that's not clear.

At the end of the day, whether it's called An R1C, R1X, R2whatever, it doesn't really matter. If georgia goes online, they're going to need one or more mass market vehicles.

Based on what I've heard, I disagree that they can't make enough in Normal for the current models. From what I've heard from them, I don't think they're anticipating year over year demand exceeding the total plant capacity once they work through their pre-order list. I don't remember what the exact numbers were off the top of my head, but I remember being surprised that theoretically they could chew through the entire amazon van order in like a year with the van line while also chewing through their entire pre-order backlog in a year at full capacity. Their anticipated capacity in Normal will be 200k, with that skewing to the van line since they're easier to make. So call it a 125k and 75k split? Maybe I'm underestimating the long term demand for the R1T and R1S but selling 75k a year at ~$80k+ AMV would basically be the total Land Rover U.S. sales.

You make some good points. However, where did you get that 200K production cap out of Normal production?

Elsewhere, it was reported by the CFO that the production "target" was 65k R1's, 85k EDV's or 150K.

This forum wouldn't allow me to insert the link to that info.

 

[junkanoo]

R1 demand is tricky. Tesla doesn't sell that many S and X, and the R1 probably needs to be priced in the range of those vehicles. But buyers on the whole weren't asking for a four door sedan or a three row egg on wheels.

So perhaps Rivian doing 150K R1 per year is a reasonable estimate. The affluent urban families with kids I know don't drive Ford/GM/Chrysler. The R1S is just right IMO. The R1s are also not too big to export.

Good point.

 

[Jimi]

Seriously, the MB EQS SUV will be crazy expensive with less capacity than the R1S. "Mercedes isn’t releasing pricing information yet, but the SUV is expected to retail for $110,000 to $130,000, depending on the trim level. It will be the German automaker’s first electric SUV to reach the US after the EQC SUV’s release was delayed indefinitely." The Verge

 

[SANZC02]

You make some good points. However, where did you get that 200K production cap out of Normal production?

Elsewhere, it was reported by the CFO that the production "target" was 65k R1's, 85k EDV's or 150K.

This forum wouldn't allow me to insert the link to that info.

They are expanding the facility and capacity. It was reported in several places, you can read some here.

 

[CLayman]

A yes/no response is too simplistic on a question that has many layers. Firstly, the R1T and R1S are two entirely different questions and Rivian's future isn't banked on the R1S being a hit. I think your doubts about the choices in the SUV segment is understandable, but the question is how successful does Rivian need to be in that segment? I don't think that's a sink the company bet. I can say that my wife loved the R1T test drive, but still would prefer I get the R1S.

Having driven the R1T and also being a Ford and Chevy owner, I can tell you that there is substantial differentiation and that the R1T does indeed seem to have carved out a segment it can own. It is decidedly upscale on the interior, yet I had a deep desire to take it off road when I was driving it. I don't think Benz owners have the same desire to do that with their rigs and the bulk of the Ford/Chevy crowd aren't looking to pay for the lux.

I do sympathize with your availability comment too. I just placed an order for a Yukon AT4. As much as I am willing to be patient to get my R1T, I'm not going to put my life on hold. My R1T *will* be able to tow my wake boat, but over distance, the Yukon will get the call of duty.

We are all taking a risk with a new company, but on balance I think RJ and the crew have done an admirable job with the business. The first 100K or so of owners are going to be just fine taking that risk. That's the nature of being an early adopter. After that, the market will be making their purchase decisions on the experiences of "fearless first". We won't know how that turns out until we get there, but until then Rivian is easily going to sell every single unit that rolls out of Normal.

 

[Speedrye]

...crazy expensive with less capacity than the R1S....

Seriously. 7.0 cubic feet of storage behind the 3rd row on the EQS SUV. A base model MINI Cooper has 20%+ more trunk behind it's seats, and that's not exactly generous. No way I'm dropping that much money on an SUV that doesn't have a big enough trunk to put groceries in without folding the rear seats up.

 

[ERguy]

I personally cross-shopped the R1S against each of the vehicles mentioned by the OP... In addition to others such as the Lightning. The OP may be more correct than many of you think.

This forum is full of people who think Rivian is the supreme vehicle, but there are many people who disagree... They just aren't in this forum and therefore don't respond to these polls.

In fact, many people with R1S reservations, such as myself, have other EV reservations too. The reservation to order conversion rate for Rivian is likely not as high as many here think, and it's likely to drop after Rivian burns through the very early reservations.

I still have a Lightning reservation, and very well may end up with that truck in the long run.

Another competitor I haven't seen mentioned here much yet is the Porche Macan EV. It looks like a great option for people wanting a vehicle more luxurious than the typical American SUV. It also has 800 volt charging and a good range. It will likely be priced very similar to the R1S. It won't work for people who want to take the vehicle off road though, and it also won't work for people who need a 3rd row.

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