Just how far behind is RAN buildout?

[dleewla]

behind, way behind.

years ago they had an initial build out of thousands of RAN fast chargers and waypoints by the end of 2023 but sometime late last year they removed the date from their website. they were way ahead of their skis on that one but should be no surprise at this point when it comes to Rivian's self-imposed timelines.

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[manitou202]

I helped my town in Colorado apply for state funding to install two 100kW+ DC fast chargers in town. Were received the grant approval last February and are still waiting for the local utility to install the transformers required before they can even begin installing the chargers. The utility claimed there is a massive backlog for transformers. A combination of EV chargers and COVID related supply chain issues.

So some of the delay isn't on Rivian themselves, but I'm sure they were way to optimistic with their original timing. Hopefully things that moving faster as the supply chain bottlenecks are resolved.

 

[fotoflux]

My assumption is that they slowed down the roll-out deliberately to conserve cash. Why on earth would you spend money opening up thousands of fast charger sites when you only have 10s of thousands of cars on the road? Their utilization would be extremely low and the capital investment would be significant for very little return for a very small customer base.

 

[Autolycus]

My assumption is that they slowed down the roll-out deliberately to conserve cash. Why on earth would you spend money opening up thousands of fast charger sites when you only have 10s of thousands of cars on the road? Their utilization would be extremely low and the capital investment would be significant for very little return for a very small customer base.

Yeah, I think covid-related supply chain delays are a part of the equation, but the need to slow cash burn a little is also an excellent reason to slow the roll out. As you said, there aren't as many Rivian vehicles on the road as they originally planned by the end of 2023, so there is less demand for RAN charging. It's an easy call to slow the rollout by a year.

 

[Guy]

Yeah, I think covid-related supply chain delays are a part of the equation, but the need to slow cash burn a little is also an excellent reason to slow the roll out. As you said, there aren't as many Rivian vehicles on the road as they originally planned by the end of 2023, so there is less demand for RAN charging. It's an easy call to slow the rollout by a year.

It will be by more than a year if they have (generously) 100 locations by the end of this year. They will not build 500 next year it is 2025 or even 2027 at the earliest.

 

[emoore]

It will be by more than a year if they have (generously) 100 locations by the end of this year. They will not build 500 next year it is 2025 or even 2027 at the earliest.

I agree it will take longer than 2024 but probably not until 2027. ~100 this year, 200 in 2024, 300 in 2025. That's my guess.

 

[Autolycus]

It will be by more than a year if they have (generously) 100 locations by the end of this year. They will not build 500 next year it is 2025 or even 2027 at the earliest.

I agree that they probably won't end up with 650 stations open by the end of 2024. I think they'll start to gain some real steam in 2023 though. I will be a tiny bit surprised if they don't break 100 by the end of October.

We're at 87 total where we know the address and the station is either open, in construction, or at least in permitting. We have another 6 on Rivian's "Coming Soon" map that don't yet have publicly-known addresses.

 

[Guy]

I agree that they probably won't end up with 650 stations open by the end of 2024. I think they'll start to gain some real steam in 2023 though. I will be a tiny bit surprised if they don't break 100 by the end of October.

We're at 87 total where we know the address and the station is either open, in construction, or at least in permitting. We have another 6 on Rivian's "Coming Soon" map that don't yet have publicly-known addresses.

I hope you and emoore are right but given past experience I do not think this will be complete until end of 2025 at the earliest. We all thought 2023 would be the ramp up after planning started in 2021 (which I would presume includes preordering 3600 chargers spread over the following two years). However as we have found out they are unlikely to meet 16% of their original target in the 2.
+ years they have had. 200 a year is four a week which is quite a run rate but we will see.

 

[zipzag]

I thought the obvious answer was cash and cash flow. They planned RAN to help spur demand. Rivian doesn't have a demand problem. Rivian has a margin and volume problem. Spending $750K on a RAN location that is used 15 times a day and adds nothing directly to revenue is easy to delay.

 

[2025R1S]

Bingo. Rivian supposedly loses between 100-160k per vehicle. Charging networks do not break even, and even operate at a loss - every transaction is more money lost.

IMO, Rivian isn’t scaling production or the RAN network anytime soon. Not until their manufacturing cost structure is reduced.

With only 30k vehicles on the roads, we’re talking about a crapload of capex spending for very few customers.

if the Rivian Grayling location is taking 12 months to come online; you can use that datapoint as a reference for the stations yet to come.

They will come, but not at the pace everyone wants. This theme is torturing every non-Tesla owner. Everyone wants this or that (that isn’t a Tesla), but they are all learning to have patience. Tesla does have a decade+ headstart, so….we gotta wait years for others to “get on their level”

My assumption is that they slowed down the roll-out deliberately to conserve cash. Why on earth would you spend money opening up thousands of fast charger sites when you only have 10s of thousands of cars on the road? Their utilization would be extremely low and the capital investment would be significant for very little return for a very small customer base.

 

[Gamma rays]

Is RAN intended for Rivian EVs only? Or can any EV with J1772 use it?

GR

 

[zipzag]

Is RAN intended for Rivian EVs only? Or can any EV with J1772 use it?

GR

Only Rivian now for the DCFC units. I believe some stations have level 2 for everyone.

Long term who knows. Like Tesla, Rivian will need to weigh the competitive advantage of proprietary stations vs. the additional revenue gained by becoming public.

 

[Autolycus]

Is RAN intended for Rivian EVs only? Or can any EV with J1772 use it?

GR

RAN = Rivian Adventure Network, DC Fast Charging network that uses CCS Combo plugs, and for now is Rivian vehicles only; this is similar to Tesla Supercharger Network

Rivian Waypoint = Level 2 AC chargers, using J1772; similar to Tesla Destination Chargers; open to any EV with a J1772

 

[Gamma rays]

Only Rivian now for the DCFC units. I believe some stations have level 2 for everyone.

Long term who knows. Like Tesla, Rivian will need to weigh the competitive advantage of proprietary stations vs. the additional revenue gained by becoming public.

RAN = Rivian Adventure Network, DC Fast Charging network that uses CCS Combo plugs, and for now is Rivian vehicles only; this is similar to Tesla Supercharger Network

Rivian Waypoint = Level 2 AC chargers, using J1772; similar to Tesla Destination Chargers; open to any EV with a J1772

Thanks. When I said J1772, I really meant CCS. Rookie mistake!

GR

 

[ads75]

As others have said, I think a slower rollout is benefiting Rivian from a cash flow perspective. I would imagine there is a large demand globally for the needed transformers also.

I would like to charge my Rivian branded vehicle from a Rivian branded charging station, but at the end of the day, whatever brand can provide me with reliable charging is going to get my business, followed by the convenience of that location.

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