R2 Launch Edition expectations

[carsly]

I think there are A LOT of people waiting to order for all sorts of various reasons - price, trim, Gen3 autonomy, color, options, lease pricing, etc...not to mention those who are disappointed in the lack of FM radio canceling their order entirely!

AM/FM radio delete, guessing for cost savings, was a strange move. There are a lot of places where cell signals are not strong or reliable enough and getting weather/safety information via radio is helpful to essential.

You'd think RJ loaded up on SpaceX stock to push people to Starlink or something.

Sponsored

 

[defcon888]

We reserved within minutes of the window opening back in March of 2024…..and we still haven’t got an email yet to start the process

 

[DuoRivian]

Based on anecdotal evidence, the take rate is very low currently, especially without all the options even being available yet for $60k. This isn't a problem bc it seems like production is also (obviously) low as well. It will come to a head shortly once they get all the options released and production ramps. The real crunch will be once the premium trim is released and possible Gen3 autonomy chipset also.

I think there are A LOT of people waiting to order for all sorts of various reasons - price, trim, Gen3 autonomy, color, options, lease pricing, etc...not to mention those who are disappointed in the lack of FM radio canceling their order entirely!

Rivian tracker has reported that the take rate or conversion rate of those who have been selected to order now and move from reservation to order is higher than expected. I wouldn’t call it low.

 

[DuoRivian]

To be fair all those influencers have day 1 reservations also. They're not jumping the line; they’re in the front.

As did over 70000 other people on day 1. No more than a 1000 are being sold in June so less than 2%, they can be part of the 98% like me and many others.

 

[Jeremy3292]

As did over 70000 other people on day 1. No more than a 1000 are being sold in June so less than 2%, they can be part of the 98% like me and many others.

Yes, both things are true. People are acting like the influencers shouldn’t be upset same as everyone on here who is upset with a day 1 reservation and no order. And I imagine the influencers ordered very quickly too along with many others. Everyone is in the same boat.

 

[Yamazaki]

Yes, both things are true. People are acting like the influencers shouldn’t be upset same as everyone on here who is upset with a day 1 reservation and no order. And I imagine the influencers ordered very quickly too along with many others. Everyone is in the same boat.

Yeah.... it's a crap boat to be in... and when you're in the boat, it's sometimes difficult to see all the other people in it. I don't think about all the other people who have no order invite also... I just keep thinking how much I want Rivian to throw me a life preserver so I can get out of that boat.
(Whew, I beat that analogy to death...)

And if there are so many people waiting for various reasons.... then why aren't more people getting invited to order? Surely there must be enough people that want what they have already produced... and are continuing to produce.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Am I wrong to think with the high number of reservations placed in relation to the production numbers ramping up, my chances of ever getting a R2 Launch edition are slim/none since I just put down my $100 on 6/12/26?

If you look at the order tracker so far, there are a few with late reservations getting in and Rivian said they would randomly pull later reservation owners as well so there is a chance. We did get messages and emails saying at the end of the month we will get an idea of where we are in line and when we can expect our car. Just a luck of the draw.

 

[fbkr]

at a 10% reservation to filled order rate, which would be quite high, that represents 10,000 units. And it's quite possible, if not likely, that the majority of those will be for the Standard and Premium trims. rough mathing, if 30% fulfill for Launch Edition, which would be incredible high, that's 3,000 Launch Edition vehicles. Should be done with those around August/September.

What are your thoughts on eventual R2 volumes? In the two row EV CUV space Model Y is #1 at 350k units/year, and the Equinox is #2 at 60k, but both have lower starting prices (40k and 35k, respectively)...

 

[savethemanual]

What are your thoughts on eventual R2 volumes? In the two row EV CUV space Model Y is #1 atat 350k units/year, and the Equinox is #2 at 60k, but both have lower starting prices (40k and 35k, respectively)...

The R2 is going to sell great, especially when the non-performance versions finally come online. Yes it's still a bit pricey for many households but also realistic for a new vehicle in this category. The features, aesthetic and overall drivability are spot on for nearly everyone shopping for an EV or ICE.

 

[carsly]

What are your thoughts on eventual R2 volumes? In the two row EV CUV space Model Y is #1 at 350k units/year, and the Equinox is #2 at 60k, but both have lower starting prices (40k and 35k, respectively)...

I think Rivian can do 50k units in 2027 or 2028 getting to 75-100k units. Real target is Rav4 and CR-V buyers more so than Model Y. Both have off-roading presumption, not so much Model Y.

But Rivian needs to get profitable on R2 and R1 by Q2 2027 or they go under and the software JV just gets absorbed into VW.

 

[DuoRivian]

I think Rivian can do 50k units in 2027 or 2028 getting to 75-100k units. Real target is Rav4 and CR-V buyers more so than Model Y. Both have off-roading presumption, not so much Model Y.

But Rivian needs to get profitable on R2 and R1 by Q2 2027 or they go under and the software JV just gets absorbed into VW.

Rivian will make 75-100k next year and then full production (150-165k) in 2028. Second shift hired later this year and third shift first half of next year by all accounts. Each shift (when at full speed) will be 50-55k a year.

 

[carsly]

Rivian will make 75-100k next year and then full production (150-165k) in 2028. Second shift hired later this year and third shift first half of next year by all accounts. Each shift (when at full speed) will be 50-55k a year.

that’s supply side. Tesla also has plenty of excess supply capacity as do GM and others. Question is how demand ramps/caps out - see R1.

 

[Husky]

We reserved within minutes of the window opening back in March of 2024…..and we still haven’t got an email yet to start the process

Same

 

[Platinumstorm]

You have about as much chance as anyone. Its clear now Rivian is selecting reservations not just based on date but location and some other factors they are not sharing.

I wish they had an option for "is your vehicle ready to stop running" instead of just a lease.

I'm happy for everyone getting one, but it's a little weird watching people with incredible and capable R1s getting priority and I've had two breakdowns on 6/9 and 6/15 because of an alternator. I know there's no way for Rivian to monitor that, but I kept thinking about it as my vehicle shakes shifting gears as the torque converter fails, and that will be the end. I went mountain biking today, and it was just so much worse than it has been over the last 2 or 3 years of shaking, so I don't know how much it has left. If that goes, I'm donating the vehicle and then I guess I either have to buy something else or fly to my father's and take one of his farm trucks.

Anyhow, here's a picture I took in 2022. When I took this picture I thought it would be its obituary photo around its 20th birthday.

Sponsored