The elephant in the room (battery replacement)

[emoore]

Battery life seems to be the big "fear mongering" trigger for anti-EV peeps.

Exactly! And it's not like the batteries are just going to die one day and lock you out. You'll have plenty of warning when your capacity is down to 20-30% but I think that's going to take at least 25 years to get to that point. Also Rivian seems to be keeping 5-6% of the battery in reserve (135 kwh vs. 127 kwh usable). So they can unlock that to add back capacity.

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[ElCapiTan]

Rich Rebuilds said it best on Joe Rogan recently but going "15 years and maybe longer" runs into the problem of parts. You can't run into an Autozone and grab parts for your Tesla, nor will you ever, but you can for a 2005 F150, right? Those 10 year old Model Ss involve stories to keep them running, usually.

I've always had 13-17 years as a reasonable expectation for battery life from today's packs. If I had a 2005 F150 that I've owned since it was new in good condition, would I sink over $20,000 into it to keep it on the road? Probably not. Especially not with the parts situation. These questions are going to get asked, some day.

In my opinion getting 15 years out of the R1T would be a good return on my investment. Going off of nothing but hopium I think it will be possible.

I recently got rid of my 2002 Yukon that was purchased new. I let it go for about $1,500 because it needed major brake work. Even though I basically got nothing compared to what I paid for the vehicle, In my opinion having 1 vehicle for almost 20 years when many people change cars every 3 years was the absolute best thing for my bank account.

 

[mkg3]

.....I just don't know what to consider, are all current BEVs over 50kWh just disposable? Replacing a 40kWh Nissan Leaf battery is entirely different than a 180kWh truck battery.

All EV's today is like holding onto 386 PC for years to come. Everything will be outdated and probably be viewed inferior within relatively short period (5~7 years).

Think of EVs as laptops with wheels where component upgrades are very difficult at best....

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Battery life seems to be the big "fear mongering" trigger for anti-EV peeps.

Battery life and towing range are the two straw man arguments I hear most from the anti EV crowd. I can tell how someone feels about EVs based on the questions they ask. If towing range or battery life comes up in the first 3 questions, nothing I say will change their mind.

 

[Mathme]

Can't speak for a Rivian Battery in 10-12 years however, I can speak for the 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport in our driveway...

When new, the Roadster had about 230ish miles of range and today when charged to 80%, it has a range of about 120 miles. Still plenty of distance for every day driving, errands, and even several day trips up in Tahoe when we had it up there a couple summers ago (see attached pic). The cost to replace the battery today is close to $30k. These batteries typically come with a new 80kWh battery (original is 56kWh), new PEM (brains) and an increased range to ~400 miles -- a significant upgrade over the stock battery.

Again, I can't speak for how and what the situation will be like in 10-12 years with a Rivian, but that's the experience in our household.

 

[Bee]

Elon estimates that the original Model 3 packs were good for 500,000miles.. and the current packs are good for 1,000,000 miles. Just knowing how things worrk.. current Rivian battery tech can't be worse than 2016 Tesla battery tech. Expect to get at least 500,000 miles from your R1T battery...

There's a difference between cycles and age, right? You can put 500,000 miles on a pack over 5 years and do it over 20 and the latter, probably ain't going to happen.

The shelf-life of the chemistry isn't indefinite no matter how many tricks we employ. This is at least what I've always known to be true and I've been into battery tech longer than EVs have been uber popular.

I can't speak with any kind of authority on what these limitations are, I just know they exist and have more of an impact than cycles these days and are highly influenced by the use of the driver at the same time. There's a curve, we're all on it, if car A is dropping total state of charge before car B, car A is likely to fail much sooner.

The thing none of us can do is put definitive numbers. The data we do have on old batteries is outdated because we don't stick large battery packs and air cool them anymore, right? So we know it's going to be better than a Leaf, but what to expect? People who are banking on 15+ I think might be in for a rude awakening if they're a daily DCFC to 80%+ user.

 

[astonius]

Can't speak for a Rivian Battery in 10-12 years however, I can speak for the 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport in our driveway...

When new, the Roadster had about 230ish miles of range and today when charged to 80%, it has a range of about 120 miles. Still plenty of distance for every day driving, errands, and even several day trips up in Tahoe when we had it up there a couple summers ago (see attached pic). The cost to replace the battery today is close to $30k. These batteries typically come with a new 80kWh battery (original is 56kWh), new PEM (brains) and an increased range to ~400 miles -- a significant upgrade over the stock battery.

Again, I can't speak for how and what the situation will be like in 10-12 years with a Rivian, but that's the experience in our household.

How many miles on the battery?

 

[Mathme]

About 40k. The roadsters don’t get as much mileage.

 

[Singletracker]

About the last thing I’m concerned about is battery life. I tend to keep my cars a long time and I’m not a particularly high mileage driver. If one drives insane miles per year, then that might be a different story. I fully expect the motors and batteries to be very, very reliable for a long, long time. They will likely fair better over time than all the complex mechanical drivetrain elements of an ICEV. If I had to pick a vehicle capable of driving 200,000, 300,000, 500,000 miles, my money would definitely be on the EV.

Now, all the Rivian electronic and computer/software elements may be a different story. However, in reality, even modern ICEV’s rely heavily on electronics and computer systems, so maybe not much difference there. As well, that sophisticated Rivian suspension may be a future repair issue. We’ll see.

 

[yizzung]

Invention is the mother of necessity or something like that. Ask any Cuban which Autozone they use to get parts for their 70 year old American made cars. In 30 years we’ll all be wearing football pads with spikes on the shoulders and fighting to the death in cage matches so who’s really going to care about OTA updates? Stay frosty.

 

[Arky]

I kind of don't know where to put the R1X on livability beyond 10 years. It has so few parts but are those parts going to make it a dead car in 10-15 years no matter what? Like when the motor eventually breaks that opens the charge port, is that going to cost $1,000 to replace? Are we even going to be able to get/make parts with how integrated everything is?

You're talking about a vehicle with 4 drive motors, air suspension and hydraulic anti roll, electric climate control vents and a myriad of other powered/unconventional accessories and sensors from a new vertically integrated company with a stated intention to not sell parts. Honestly the battery is the least of my worries.

IMO - this is not a forever car. It's more like a Range Rover. They're cool, as long as they're in warranty. Maintaining the thing outside of that looks like it would be a nightmare.

 

[nc10]

I kind of don't know where to put the R1X on livability beyond 10 years. It has so few parts but are those parts going to make it a dead car in 10-15 years no matter what?

Rivian's IPO documents showed part of their target market being resale of EV's. I expect, for good or bad, when we get to the battery replacment point, it will make more sense to trade into Rivian than it will to replace/upgrade the battery.

I'm sure Rivian expects many trade-ins to be with useful batteries, but Rivian will have a plan to generate maximum revenue from your case also.

 

[Bee]

Rivian's IPO documents showed part of their target market being resale of EV's. I expect, for good or bad, when we get to the battery replacment point, it will make more sense to trade into Rivian than it will to replace/upgrade the battery.

I'm sure Rivian expects many trade-ins to be with useful batteries, but Rivian will have a plan to generate maximum revenue from your case also.

I know it wasn't very long ago but man was that long ago. I think now they're in "sell as many expensive things as possible" mode given the constraints. Like does anyone think we're going to see that drop in bed pack any time soon?

They've even said recently they don't plan to deliver cheaper models until 2025, I don't think anything they were planning at the IPO stage can be taken as serious long term development strategy.

I think @Arky has the right read. Maybe someday they'll be that, but I just don't get the feeling they're thinking about the owner 20 years from now at this stage of development and production.

 

[nc10]

I think @Arky has the right read. Maybe someday they'll be that, but I just don't get the feeling they're thinking about the owner

Sure. Just predicting Rivian will want to maximize revenue by encouraging trade ins rather than replace your battery….. But we’re a few years (7-10) away

There were several comments on the webcast yesterday that support the sell expensive things comments. Part of why I expect a trade in plan. Maybe even add a battery leasing plan, rivian seems to take every chance to mention recurring revenue streams beyond selling vehicles

 

[Zoidz]

Given the opportunity to make a profit, 3rd parties will step up to fill a void in the parts market.
Assuming the R1 hits some overall production count (no idea what that is) the 3rd party/remanufacturer/rebuilder market will see value in providing rebuilds or new parts for common failure items. I also think there will be an explosion of 3rd party battery swap companies over the next 5-7 years. A few exist today.

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