Indications of an R1 refresh

[bdwalters]

We already know that the R1 refresh is imminent given all of the sightings of the R1 test vehicles with reconfigured ADAS cameras.

The R1 continues to be competitive in its segment. Any refresh at this point is going to be focused on cutting production costs. I would not get your hopes up about capability or consumer-facing changes beyond minor cosmetic upgrades and new charging pads.

The heat pump is only going to happen unless it lowers cost given the marginal benefits of a heat pump in such a thirsty vehicle (e.g. it allows for a smaller battery pack for equivalent range or simplifies cabin/battery conditioning system). I'm not even 100% convinced that the relocated ADAS cameras will add additional capabilities.

R1 demand is slowing. Rivian needs to keep updating it to renew interest. I will be shocked if there aren’t a number of major upgrades.

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[Electrified Outdoors]

I doubt there will be any substantial refresh on R1. They are cutting costs. If anything we might see lower cost trims. That's what will increase demand at this point. Folks aren't willing to spend the money right now... It's not just Rivian.

Anything is possible, but I think the main focus for Rivian is cutting costs and simplify production with this shut down.

 

[vandy1981]

Rivian needs to keep updating it to renew interest.

Rivian will generate R1 demand by offering lower-cost configurations. The new battery packs and production savings will help them achieve this.

 

[crashmtb]

That's a lot of paragraphs to say "Rivian announces new model; therefore refresh of flagship models is inevitable"

 

[thrill]

Rivian will generate R1 demand by offering lower-cost configurations. The new battery packs and production savings will help them achieve this.

Flagship models should keep being updated to raise eyebrows and create elevated heartbeats.

 

[JayinNJ]

Flagship models should keep being updated to raise eyebrows and create elevated heartbeats.

That makes sense when they are not struggling to survive. I think any update to the R1 has to also increase margins while not raising the price.

 

[DuoRivian]

I don’t see a heat pump (#5) as no mention of it for R2 or 3 was made.
The wireless charger upgrade is in progress and will be available for existing owners as per comments last year.

 

[DuoRivian]

This seems to me to be a spot-on analysis and hypothesis—I, too, felt even more strongly after watching the R2/3 release that the April shutdown for retooling would be, in part, to bring about an R1 refresh both to drive more R1 demand before R2 starts shipping and to reduce complexity/cost of production with lessons learned in the first couple years of R1 manufacturing. The new haptic controls and some of the interior materials, cameras (that were outdated from day one on R1) and radar, new colors (interior and exterior), and an enduro quad motor/max pack quad all seem like potential items we might see following the shutdown—all hopefully with reduced manufacturing complexity/expense. One or two gloveboxes would be cool, but I doubt that's possible given the packaging changes that would be necessary to pull that off.

I have been in the market for an R1S while going through a painfully slow negotiation with Hyundai on an Ioniq 5 buyback (a whole long—tedious—story in and of itself). I was close to purchasing one from the shop about a month ago, then went on a search for a unicorn used green (either forest or launch) + Forest Edge + Dark 20" R1S (didn't find anything with reinforced underbody) since new R1S quad motor price is just a bit higher than I can justify right now, especially with interest rates being what they are and Rivian offering little to no help there.

I had a $1000 refundable deposit on a shop build that came and went as I waited, and then I decided to wait a little longer until the R2 release before pulling any trigger. The night before the event, I saw the demo shop thread and put a $0 reserve hold on an R1T (all 4 of the R1S were already sold out when I discovered the page). The spec is basically exactly what I want (minus underbody shield)—Forest Green + Forest Edge + 20" Darks + powered tonneau: https://demovehicles.rivian.com/pro...9896-miles-66307?_pos=16&_fid=d7a27f4db&_ss=c

I'm torn because what's motivating this is that I will need a vehicle in about 4 weeks when my Ioniq 5 is picked up. I would prefer an R1S to an R1T, but either will work for my needs (I just don't need a bed often, and have access to a diesel work truck with an 8' bed when I do need one). The shorter wheelbase and added secure/waterproof/climate-controlled (aka, interior) space of an SUV form factor is more useful and appealing to me. The R1T demo truck I reserved at least takes a big chunk of the initial depreciation off the top, and because it's a business purchase we will get the $7500 tax break off the ~$72k delivered price (plus another $2500 state incentive) since it's an untitled/unregistered vehicle (I confirmed this with Rivian and our accountant). I am almost thinking it's worth getting this truck as a stop-gap to then trade for R2 or a refreshed R1S, or maybe a used one in the future since pricing for a new R1S is so hard to justify.

Does anyone have an opinion on how hard an impact such a refresh could have on trade-in/used pre-refresh R1? Am I crazy to be buying an R1T for a net of $60k with 10k miles right at the brink of a refresh? We have a 10-year-old beater leaf I could be driving to and from work that I could live with for the next two months, but it's definitely not ideal.

I think it is reasonable to proceed. The focus of the April shutdown is to reduce costs not add more features for the R1. Things like the wireless pad or the drawer will come to owners. As for new colors we have seen two potential new ones to take the place of launch green and compass yellow. If you like an existing color the those are not going away for some time.

 

[bdwalters]

I agree that the primary goal of the refresh is cost reduction. You can’t run with negative gross margins forever. I just think that they will also start including some of the R2 upgrades as well. They had to do a ton of software work for the new architecture. We are going to see that. They can then use the R1 as a debug and development platform to have the software in top shape for the R2. The new steering wheel will come with that. I doubt that costs any more than the old one, and the reuse will get them better pricing and simplify production. The new self driving hardware will also be in there, I bet. I think it’s probably better for them to have that in sync with what’s in the new models. Improvements don’t have to cost a fortune. Component prices come down as volume goes up, and they will be buying many more parts to support production of the higher volume new models. They are going to want to share all they can as soon as they can.

Naturally, Rivian doesn’t want to talk about this much, as they want people buying from existing inventory, not waiting for the refresh!

 

[vandy1981]

Flagship models should keep being updated to raise eyebrows and create elevated heartbeats.

Nothing catches the eye or raises the pulse better than a heat pump.

 

[dleepnw]

i think Rivian has stated part of the refresh will be the simplified network architecture. this will reduce cost and, reading between the lines, improve efficiency. id guess that along with some of the other improvements like heat pump and wireless charging will make the R1 more similar to the upcoming R2 to reduce parts across all lines. it probably is logical that in designing the R2, they looked at the shortcomings incorporated the lessons learned so im sure the refreshed R1 is going to get some of the improvements were going to see in the R2. i could see them also improving the camera quality, improved audio system, and anything else they can do to share more parts.

 

[ThatOneGuy]

i think Rivian has stated part of the refresh will be the simplified network architecture. this will reduce cost and, reading between the lines, improve efficiency. id guess that along with some of the other improvements like heat pump and wireless charging will make the R1 more similar to the upcoming R2 to reduce parts across all lines. it probably is logical that in designing the R2, they looked at the shortcomings incorporated the lessons learned so im sure the refreshed R1 is going to get some of the improvements were going to see in the R2. i could see them also improving the camera quality, improved audio system, and anything else they can do to share more parts.

Completely agree. I think one of the biggest incentives for Rivian to refresh R1 is cost savings gained from shared parts across R1/2/3 and a related reduction in overall vehicle complexity (such as network architecture). Aligning under-the-hood can net huge cost savings while still maintaining the unique niche that each vehicle is designed to occupy (to avoid cannibalization).

Everyone agrees that Rivian HAS to improve their margins on the R1 line and believes that the April shutdown is necessary to do so. Failing to align across their current and future vehicle lines for efficiency's sake is effectively leaving money on the table and they'd be foolish not to use this opportunity to do so. Think of the market impact this shutdown is having on their annual production guidance, and now imagine that they have to do the same thing in Q1 2025 so they can update the R1 line before R2 launches. How do you think that will turn out for them? Another production forecast that's flat (or negative) YoY for their only two products will destroy investor confidence and reignite doubts about whether they can survive long enough to ramp R2, even if their R1 margins have improved YoY. They HAVE to keep the R1 line fresh and boost sales, otherwise 2025/2026 will be really rough years for them.

Also, I am surprised that many people seem to think that inclusion of heat pumps does not align with the goal of lowering production costs. Heat pumps translate to greater efficiency; rather than using any power savings to increase the range of their vehicles, Rivian would almost certainly choose to reduce the amount of batteries per-pack. What effect does that have? Lower cost-per-pack = lower cost-per-vehicle = increased margins.

Each shared nob, button, fabric, screen, processor, battery, wiring harness, heat pump will result in lower costs across the board. The sooner that alignment occurs, the closer they will be to profitability.

 

[racekarl]

Also, I am surprised that many people seem to think that inclusion of heat pumps does not align with the goal of lowering production costs. Heat pumps translate to greater efficiency; rather than using any power savings to increase the range of their vehicles, Rivian would almost certainly choose to reduce the amount of batteries per-pack. What effect does that have? Lower cost-per-pack = lower cost-per-vehicle = increased margins.

Sure, but only if the heat pump and its related engineering, plumbing, etc. costs less than the cells you can remove from the pack.

 

[jbssfelix]

I think it is reasonable to proceed. The focus of the April shutdown is to reduce costs not add more features for the R1. Things like the wireless pad or the drawer will come to owners. As for new colors we have seen two potential new ones to take the place of launch green and compass yellow. If you like an existing color the those are not going away for some time.

It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. Reducing parts numbers across all models would be both a refresh to the R1 as well as a cost-savings by reducing parts. Example being making the steering wheel the same, or very similar, across models. Same with the charging pad...if they can source a better charging pad supplier (or have one in-house), it makes no sense to keep ordering the old one if the new one can be installed into a refreshed R1 with small manufacturing adjustments to accommodate.

 

[Rividiculous]

I postponed my order a while ago in hopes benefiting from the refresh while recognizing I am taking some “decontenting“ risk. (But, hey, people say the camp speaker is buggy anyway.) I hope OP is right. I think OP’s logic is solid but it really depends on where Rivian is with the engineering and its procurement process.

Prior to the R2/R3 unveiling, I was hoping most of all for a heat pump and electrochromic roof. But then the new steering wheel stole my heart.

There’s something I never expected to happen!

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