This is excellent data to work against. I do very much hope that CA delivers chargers at all rest stops as we move towards 0 ICE sales in 2035. We use them about once every two hours as well, so getting 150 miles per charge in in 20 minutes would be perfect (and not unreasonable).
I don't think 45kWh of exceptionally high density battery cells would only cost $5-6k. This is only $120/kWh. I believe the going rate for mass volume orders is around $200 for basic packs after a year of raw material price increases, slowing production due to the pandemic and surging demand. My guess is that at $10k they are breaking even. Maybe if they up it to $15-18k will they offer it. But I would be shocked if they actually build it because the market likely won't tolerate that price.
Isn't the new max pack price $16K? The old price is $10K. Plenty of people will pay $16K if they need or want the range.
the “300 miles under ideaL conditions is all I need so no one else needs more, Rivian will cancel the max pack” speculators have never driven into a headwind or crosswind in western canada/US.
One of the first earnings calls / shareholder letters said they were working on V2H capability. My hope is that Max Pack adds 800V for greater than 220 kW charging capability along with V2H and possibly a heat pump, which they also said was coming. While there's a huge and valid argument to be made that for ever 3 max pack trucks they sell they could sell 4 large pack trucks, I'd like to believe the delay for max pack has more to do with advancing the platform. With 180 kWh in the pack offering faster charging will be a bigger deal as well as the ability to use the truck as a "generator" with V2H. Engineering Explained already did the cost comparison of the F-150 Lightning with V2H vs Tesla Powerwall and it wasn't even close...truck wins without question.
Part of the issue as well is there are near zero chargers past Calgary/Edmonton of any meaningful charge rate. You might get lucky in a random town like Medicine Hat with an 11 kW charger.
All of that, 800 volt, V2H is in the new hardware that will come with the new Rivian motor design. Anything with the dual motors should be capable. Not sure when the plan to convert the quad motors to that hardware stack will be.
Leaving the max pack to charge at 400V only would be an odd choice. Having the premium motors in a vehicle that remains at 400V when the less expensive dual motor vehicle can charge at 800V would be an odd choice.
basically other than hwy 3 in BC/AB if you get off the trans canada it’s pretty barren for charging.
Analysts estimate the current price of automotive grade li-ion cells is $128 per kilowatt-hour which is why I said $5-6k. Even with the increase in raw materials costs, the peak price for next year is estimated at $138 per kilowatt-hour.
Those prices quoted are for battery cells only. The auto manufacturer still needs to assemble those cells into modules and then packs, both of which present a significant cost over the cells alone. Modifications also need to be made to the entire BMS and the chassis cavity that will accept this larger battery pack. It's a much bigger cost than just the cells alone. This also doesn't take into account strong demand, which drives prices up for auto manufacturers that don't produce their own batteries. While we don't know what Rivian is paying for turnkey battery packs, I'd assume the cost to them is currently much closer to $200 than $128. This can all change quite quickly but the current known prices will likely drive their decision to offer the max pack or not, at least for now.
